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Forecasting

Unmesh Anil Deshmukh

Abstract


The methodology of decomposition of time series into trend, seasonality and irregular components, forecasting them individually and combining them later improves accuracy of forecasts. We are trying out different variations of existing methods for decomposing the time series. We are also employing a variety of rank-based and weight-based combining methods on forecasts obtained by using multiple forecasting experts for each of the components. Choosing the forecasts to be combined and how to combine the chosen forecasts are the two key challenges we intend to solve.








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