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Hybrid Model Based Reasoning in Finance

Chitte Sachin S

Abstract


Intelligence is the ability to acquire, understand and apply knowledge or the ability to exercise thought and reason.Intelligent system is a system that learns during its existence. It continually acts, mentally and externally, and by acting reaches its objectives. Expert Systems, Neural networks, Case-based Reasoning, Model-based Reasoning etc. are examples of the Intelligent Systems. In Development cycle first phase is called knowledge acquisition. In this knowledge is collected by various knowledge acquisition techniques and stored in knowledge base. Expert systems are good when expertise is available and easy to extract from the human experts and various knowledge sources. Case based reasoning helps to dig out the hidden knowledge in already solved problems and use to that to solve the similar kind of new problem.Model based reasoning can use particular model, simulate it, and get a result which compared to the predicated result. Each of these systems has some inherent weaknesses and strengths. This makes them less suitable for solving problems using a single technique. Combining these techniques enhance their overall strengths and lessen weakness helping to solve whole problem in effective way.Historical data of company analyzed and relation for data change is obtained. Considering trend will continue expected results for the next period predicted. These predicted result are compared with the actual results. If there is conflict then the expert system drill down to find the further reasons why this happened. Expert system checks its knowledge base to find all the possibilities which are responsible for this unexpected behavior.








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